Alcaraz Struggling at the End of the Season: The Nadal Syndrome?

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Arthur Millot

le 29/10/2025 à 17h04

2 min to read

Alcaraz Nadal Paris

Beating everyone before fading away as November approaches: the scenario is repeating itself for Carlos Alcaraz. A situation reminiscent of his compatriot Rafael Nadal.

Knocked out early in Paris, the Spaniard seems to be reproducing the same patterns as Rafael Nadal. Fatigue, indoor surfaces, and the calendar: history seems to be repeating itself and could well become his biggest challenge going forward.

Eliminated in his opening match at the Paris Masters 1000 by the combative Cameron Norrie, Carlos Alcaraz confirmed what many suspected: at the end of the season, his tennis loses its magic.

And yet, the numbers don't lie. Since 2022, the year of his breakthrough among the circuit's giants, Alcaraz has shown a constant drop in performance as the year progresses.
- Between March and July, he wins nearly 90% of his matches
- In October, he drops to 61.9%
- In November, he plateaus at 54.5%

The phenomenon is not limited to statistics. In Masters 1000 events, Alcaraz has already won six different tournaments, but never Shanghai or Paris, the last two of the season. As for the ATP Finals, he has only won three out of seven matches. An anomaly for a player at this level.

It's hard not to think of Rafael Nadal. The shadow of the Majorcan looms over every analysis of Alcaraz, and for good reason: the two Spaniards share this downward trend at the end of the season.

Nadal never won the Paris Masters 1000 and never lifted the ATP Finals trophy despite eleven appearances. Two blemishes in an otherwise monumental career.

This is why Alcaraz must now prove he is capable. Because at this rate, the autumn will remain for him the season where the light goes out.