Stats, Winds, and Effects: Why Alcaraz Doesn't Shine Indoors (and How Can He Fix It)?

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Arthur Millot

le 05/11/2025 à 17h17

2 min to read

Alcaraz ATP Finals

Carlos Alcaraz, so flamboyant on clay or grass, becomes unrecognizable under a closed roof. But why does the explosive game of the young Spaniard run out of steam on indoor hard courts?

Carlos Alcaraz, 22, embodies the vigor, creativity, and power of modern tennis. Yet, a statistical detail troubles observers: his win rate drops below 70% when he plays on indoor hard courts, compared to over 80% on clay or grass, (according to figures revealed by Punto de Break). And this is not a mere coincidence: week after week, from Paris-Bercy to Turin, Carlitos struggles to deploy his magic.

To understand this difference, we must obviously mention the playing conditions. Under a roof, there is no wind, no sun, no natural humidity: the game becomes faster, more predictable. The spins and variations: Alcaraz's deadly weapon, therefore lose their bite.

On an outdoor court, his monstrous topspins come to life in the hot, dry air, pushing his opponents several meters behind the baseline. But in a closed arena, the ball bounces lower, the rotations bite less, and Carlitos's game thus loses its edge.

It's simple, again according to Punto de Break, on indoor hard courts, Alcaraz wins up to 10% fewer points from the baseline. A chasm, for a player whose dominance relies on depth and heaviness of shot. In 2023, he won 48% of these points. In 2024, 49%. And in 2025, 50%. Proof is in his 49% of points won from the baseline during his last match in Paris against Cameron Norrie (4-6, 6-3, 6-4).

But what must he do to remedy all this? It will involve playing more matches in these conditions, but also an evolution of his (already extraordinary) repertoire: flatter shots, a more advanced court positioning, and a management of pace less dependent on spin.

The 2025 ATP Finals will therefore be his next big test. Can he finally break through the glass ceiling and win his first Tour Finals?